Published: May 2026 | Nicks Timber, Gloucester
If you're in construction, renovation, or the trade, you'll know that the timber market doesn't exist in a vacuum. What happens on the world stage has a very real impact on what materials cost, how available they are, and how confident buyers feel about committing to projects. So here's a plain-English breakdown of what's going on right now — and what it might mean for you.
Construction is Slowing Down — Here's Why
The Construction Products Association (CPA) has issued a significant downgrade to its growth forecast for 2026. Rather than the 1.7% growth it predicted earlier in the year, the industry now expects output to fall by 2.5% across the sector.
That's a big swing — and the CPA has noted that revisions of this scale have only happened a handful of times before: during the 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020, and when energy prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The causes this time? A weather-hit Q1, followed by an anticipated slowdown in demand and rising cost inflation in the second half of the year — all tied closely to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its ripple effects on global supply chains and energy prices.
For private housing, the picture is particularly challenging. Output is expected to fall by 7% in 2026, and repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) work — the bread and butter of many tradespeople — is forecast to drop by 8%.
What Does This Mean for Timber?
According to Nick Boulton, Head of Technical and Trade Policy at Timber Development UK (TDUK), the timber picture is more nuanced than the headline construction figures suggest.
Plywood, particleboard, and a range of engineered wood products actually outperformed expectations in the second half of 2025, with some areas of demand holding up even while broader construction activity remained subdued.
That said, trade sources have flagged that stock levels of imported wood-based panels were high at year end and remained elevated through Q1 2026. There's been a pickup in supply chain activity in Q2, but it's not yet clear whether that reflects genuine underlying demand improving, or simply businesses consolidating stock positions ahead of anticipated supply tightening caused by global instability.
On softwood, revised 2025 import figures have been released by TDUK, putting total timber imports for the year at 9.6 million cubic metres — a 2.9% uplift on 2024. Softwood volumes came in very close to 2024 levels, down by just 0.1%.
Looking Ahead to 2027
The CPA does forecast a recovery, with output expected to rise by 1.2% in 2027 — but that's still a significant cut from the 2.8% it was previously predicting, and growth will be coming from a lower base. The risks to even that modest recovery remain on the downside, with rising borrowing costs and inflation likely to dampen both consumer and business confidence for some time to come.
Much, as TDUK notes, will depend on how events in the Middle East and Eastern Europe develop.
Our Take at Nicks Timber
We've been supplying timber to Gloucestershire and beyond since 1856, and in that time we've seen the market move through plenty of cycles. The current climate is genuinely uncertain — but uncertainty isn't the same as crisis.
If you're a contractor or developer wondering whether to press ahead with projects, our honest advice is to plan carefully and don't over-commit on stock while supply chains remain volatile. If you're a homeowner with a renovation in mind, now may still be a sensible time to move forward before costs rise further in H2.
As always, we're here to talk through what you need — whether that's hardwoods, softwoods, sheet materials, or specialist timber. Our team has the knowledge and the stock to help you make the right call.
Get in touch with our team or visit us in Gloucester.
Sources: Timber Development UK Market Update, May 2026 | Construction Products Association Spring Forecast 2026–2028
